[Editor’s note: the following article first appeared on the Outside the Market blog on November 29. Read the original entry here.]
Regular readers will be familiar with my conclusion that the U.S. is hurtling toward a near-identical self-destruction and economic implosion as occurred with the Soviet Union a quarter-century ago.
Thanks to groovin123 for a link for an interview with Russian Professor Igor Panarin, who has made some very similar predictions. However, what separates Panarin from myself (and almost all other U.S. doom-and-gloom'ers) is that Panarin announced his own predictions back in 1998.
Naturally, with the recent, rapid deterioration of the status of the U.S. (in so many ways), Panarin's views are now attracting much more interest - and respect. For those (younger readers) who are not very familiar with the demise of the Soviet Union, let me provide some context.
A little less than 30 years ago, the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, at a time when it was still universally regarded as a "superpower". However, hidden from most of the world, the economic deterioration of the Soviet bloc - and a heated arm's race with the U.S. were rapidly straining the Soviet economy to the breaking point.
In Afghanistan, the U.S. used every covert tool in its arsenal to inflict enormous military (and economic) losses on the Soviets - including providing elite guerrilla and insurgency training to a collection of Arab fighters who called themselves "the Mujahadeen". Today, most people know them by their current name: "Al Qaeda".
To make a long story short, the combination of economic and military pressures finally caused the whole Soviet power structure to snap - resulting in the disintegration of the Soviet bloc, a humiliating retreat from Afghanistan, and the new political status quo we see in that region today.
Meanwhile, having used the Mujahadeen to satisfy its own objective, the U.S. abandoned them. It left behind a country that had been utterly destroyed in the most intense "insurgency" in history, with absolute political chaos, and complete economic devastation. Years of civil war and extreme poverty for Afghans ensued. That was the time in which the "Mujahadeen" became "Al Qaeda".
What followed was over two decades of open gloating by the U.S. of its "victory" over the Soviet Union, countless gestures to humiliate Russia over the loss of its empire, and a concerted political/military campaign to turn former Soviet satellite-nations into U.S. military bases - surrounding Russia with enemies possessing (most of) the latest U.S. military technologies.
Today, it is the U.S. who has invaded Afghanistan. Because it made the mistake of diverting most of its military might to the disastrous invasion of Iraq, the same guerillas who once fought the Russians with the complete backing of the U.S. are now slowly defeating the U.S. (and NATO) without any significant outside military backing.
Economically, U.S. arrogance has resulted in such extreme economic neglect and mismanagement, that even without the economic pressures of a costly arm's race, it is the U.S. which has now spent itself into a debt-spiral from which there is no escape.
Here is an excerpt of the Panarin interview:
"In September 1998 an international conference called the Informational War was held in Austria. I presented my analytical research there. 150 out of 400 participants were from the USA. There was outrageous shouting in the audience when I was talking about the division of America in my presentation. However my reasons were well-grounded. Back then it was obvious that finance and economy would be the main destructive power for the USA. The dollar was not secured by anything. The external debt of the country was growing like an avalanche in spite of the fact that it was non-existent at the beginning of the 1980s. In 1998, when I was making my forecast, it had reached 2 trillion dollars. Today it’s more than 11 trillion. This is a pyramid which is bound to collapse."
Readers will note that Panarin's dire predictions for the U.S. are based on the extremely misleading numbers which the U.S. publicly uses in listing its debt, and not the incomprehensibly huge mountain of debt (which Martenson detailed so superbly - http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse).
While there is little to admire about Russian society, and even less to admire about Russian leadership, it is impossible not to vicariously enjoy the complete irony of this "deja vu", and to recall an old saying: "He who laughs last, laughs best."
I won't analyze Panarin's views paragraph-by-paragraph - as much of what he talks about has been presented on this blog in one form or anther. However, his interview does contain references to our own country, including the following:
"In 2006 [immediately after Stephen Harper was first elected] a secret agreement was made between Canada, Mexico and the USA on preparing to implement the Amero as a new currency unit. This may mean replacement of the dollar. At the same time 100-dollar notes which have flooded the world may just get “frozen”. An excuse may be used, for example, that terrorists have made false notes which need to be checked."
I would encourage everyone to go to the link and read (or listen) to the interview in its entirety:
Professor Igor Panarin: When America fell to pieces the shouting was outrageous
As early as autumn 2009 the economic crisis may lead to a civil war in the USA and then to its division into parts. Igor Panarin, doctor of political science, dean of the foreign affairs department at the Diplomacy Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, presented this forecast ten years ago. At that time his forecasts seemed unrealistic,but now many of them are coming true.
This article was written by a member of the Stockhouse community.
Read more Stockhouse articles by littleguy123.