Oil bouncing ar 80's plus futures. Price has bounced as latecomers to a U trade and the very short termadjustments by upstream producers are made in the futures market wealways see a pivot point trying to be determined.
I looked backat my past posts on benchmarks for HOD and noted that if HOD breached77.77 it will see 79, possibly into 80 price. It leads me to believe aswe have now had pull-backs from 80's price that oil MAY BE at a pivotpoint. We should be concerned if you are on HOD that we see a breakabove 80.80 April oil futures. This I believe will lead to a challengeof the 83.00 price and that we as traders of HOD are reading marketwrong.
What I did was triple my position below HOD 8.70 thismorning. I have done my own DD and believe globally oil is underpressure at the 80's price mark. It is that I see 83.94 Jan oil futureswas a YTD high and that if oil demand & price is weakening it wouldnot necessarily again hit 83.94, rather a LOWER HIGH. That is what I amtrading, a lower high. So my trade is on and I will adjust ifnecessary. I have no loyalty to HOD at this price, it trends I willhold, if not I will await another opportunity.
I would if onHOU NOT HOLD overnight. The risk is to high, similar to holding HNUthinking it would bounce as it dropped well below 10.00, the riskoutweighs a favourable probability.
That is my view and stillproject 68 72 price range will be reached before oil futures hit 86later in year during hurricane season. CAVEAT - news or skirmish withiran is again in the news.
GLTA trading HOD