February 05, 2011 07:31 pm
Look at the chart from middle 2003 to Nov 2004. It is EXACTLY like Feb 2009 to the present. Look how far it took off then and watch history repeat itself. I am a fundamentalist stock picker first. Then I wait for the technicals to catch up later. When you use fundamentals first you often get the quick 200% and 300% gains before they get to the masses for the substantive runs after. Moreover on thinly traded stocks you can accumulate more in this period also.
This is my fundamental and technical analysis. HYD is trading at one third book value with no debt, thats represents hard assets and not good will or debt. Second it is the best in breed in what it does in Canada , rig and well repair and manufacturing.Third all major drilling companies have announced larger increases in capex for 2011. This represents the start of the " inventory replenishment " phase. It starts with some rig builds and alot of repair/maintenance work. Next year it will be rig builds outright as these have declined and are approaching obsolescence and the costs of environmental catastrophe are too great if your an O and G producer and u damage a reservoir, watch " Gasland " on youtube to see what I mean. Fourthly long term hedges are coming off and the majors ECA, CHK ,TLM have cut back production sharply, to create an "OPEC style" solution to get rid of oversupply to drive NG high so that a new round of long term hedges can be locked in. Fifthly, for the first time in a year, weekly NG storage was LESS than it was in a previous year. This week and next weeks drawdown will take NG in storage BELOW the five year average for the first time since 2007. Sixthly we are in early stages of economic recovery on a world wide basis. Canada , Australia, China, India and Germany are further along than everyone. As the world economy rebounds industries which consume alot of NG ( feedstocks, fertilizer, potash, and chemicals) will drive NG higher. Finally China has mandated to its automakers they want to see more domestic vehicles that run on NG. Arab instability and China's 25 % investment in Chespeake and Encana demonstrate they want a reliable source of NG supply.
Long consolidation in 35 to 50 cent range is about to pop to next break out phase to a dollar, then further consolidation before an assault to 1.50. From there on to several dollars higher. Stock has only 4 % more shares than in the last run. Small float, 15 % insider held , make this a VALUE PLAY FUNDAMENTAL and TECHNICAL MULTIBAGGER!!!!!