Great summary gd1, always fun to see where we're at.  The Kaiser interview is also definitely worth the read, and does a nice job of explaining how the institutions and day-traders profit by working the price to the downside.  For a more optimistic take on where we're at, check out Eric De Groot.  He (along with Adam Hamilton and a couple of others) has been one of the most unemotional, 'state of the market only' commentators on gold around.


Personally, I'm 100% certain that the gold bull is far from over, both because of the fundamentals, and because there's been no mania yet, with the general public driving the market to ridiculous heights.  And I'm still convinced (maybe wrongly) that the mining shares will go crazy in that environment, and the institutions and day-traders will manipulate the shares up to ridiculous levels, as opposed to the current manipulation down to ridiculous levels.


Here's Eric's site - well worth the read (for what it's worth, he's bullish on the miners,  I posted the link where he showed the index broke out of a 30 year consolidation in 2010 and is now just retesting the breakout level)