Elections may well however delay or frustrate an announcement. I do agree 100% that Taipan as well as others are a red hot proposition for a major farm in the near future otherwise I would not be here.
My personal belief is that the full story from the Paipai well has not been disclosed as yet. It's kind of convenient that just before elections hydrocarbons have been discovered but cannot be brought to the surface for sampling due to pressure and incompatible equipment. The well has been suspended........... not abandoned.
Bear in mind that whilst not considered critical to Taipan since Paipai was predominantly a cretaceous play and 2B is a prdominantly a Tertiary play with cretaceous as a secondary target, a confirmed substantial discovery at Paipai would further derisk block 2B as well as others potentially giving leverage to block owners to drive a harder bargain on any JV.
I am not saying that Tullow is necessarily targeting Taipans assets, but I am sure they will be running the slide rule over a number of the juniors and certainly will not want to drive the price of farm in up by systematically de-risking them.
Tullow is a British company and the UK as well as the US and others have said that they will only have minimal and essential contact with Kenyatta if he wins the elections which it appears he has. Kenyatta at the time responded that this was not to much of a problem as there were alternatives citing China and Russia.
If you owned a major oil company looking to do business in Kenya would you stake millions now or wait until the dust settled and in the meantime not give to much away about what you had discovered? I know which way I would go.
Kenyatta however does need the west (and vice-versa) for as number of politrical reasons and in addition will crave the oil dollars to make good on his promises. Renaging on contracts and bringing in the east will put him back to square one, so I think one way or another over the next couple of weeks/months the picture will clear and the dust will settle.
When that happens I think we are going to see a lot of action in Kenya and hopefully some significant re-ratings of the juniors.
AIMHO of course