Lets not forget that it is believed also that this field extends into HKN block to north. We now see Mol says Bakram-1 is on likely on trend with Atrush. We have possible extensions into two adjacent blocks.
It does not appear that Atrush reserviors are common with Shakain, although that does not sound good, believe that is a positive as Shakian reservoirs are sour and heavy. This requires additional treatment infrasructure and in independant pipeline. It is tough enough to get a light oil pipeline let alone a independant heavy oil pipeline for a grade of oil nobody really needs or wants.
Atrush feild is big that is now known, but how big? Is it 2 billion, 4 billion, 8 billion or 14 billiion?
We need a takeout prior to the end of 2013 but not yet. Why 2013? I believe there will never be an agreement on Oil and Gas Law and that Kurdistan contracts will never be recognized by ICG. As long as there is no law and there is disputed territory we will never get full value for reserves or full dollars for production.
Hope I am wrong, however see no real diplomatic effort or solutions to the law or disputed territory. Take over needs to be before ICG has the means, in the form of an armed military to subdue the uprising (in ICG opinion it is an uprising) and threat presented by the Kurds.
Kurds ultimately want independance and that is unacceptable to ICG. This country needs a dictator, Saddam is gone the new one, once armed will be Maliki. ICG will do what ever necessary to prevent Kurdish independance with new country including Iraq's largest field, Kirkuk. The potential for a pipeline independant of ICG through Turkey is a threat to ICG. Disputed territories, independant IOC contracts,independant pipelines, independant Kurdish state are all threats to ICG are are all barriers to any diplomatic solutions.
Occasionally ICG and Kurds will announce some progress, it is always short lived. These are effective stall tactics by ICG until they can build their military and protect what they believe is theirs. This is oil, not fields of wheat or poppies.
We need a take over, not yet, but prior to everybody realizing that these guys will never settle the disputes and that this will only be settled with use of military action.
Possibly I underestimate the power of large IOC's with the potential backing of their respective governments. Time will tell.
I am a shareholder here, am not bashing SNM or their prospects, ultimately Atrush will be proven to be an elephant field IMO