I understand the CPO delay thing totally .. but its my wish that it hurry along with no more delays - the land owners certainly gave them trouble for sure . .... as for my 'hard rock' geologist buddies wanting to be oil geologists ....... believe me they have made a fortune in looking at 3-d's, and are very well schooled  - so they must be credible to a slight degree  ....they made an estimate , as do most oil geologist and companies before twisting a drill  .... whether they tell you or not what they feel is net pay and probabilities - most companies and geo -team are making an educated guess . there is no absolutes here. of course the error rations go way down when dealing with 3d or 2d .  

its still an "art and a science" Reading 3-d's my friend . soooooo ... there is likelihood and statistical probabilities that a hole will produce and for how long- no absolutes  .... thats why they do 3-d's(lower risks)i am told by them .

best of the day shliker ,thanks for the note and questions .....

rapid fire