Do you ever wonder if Probe is, perhaps, overbought, relative to the rest of the market?  Do you wonder if the shorters are looking at the big picture and not focusing on the value of 10 million ounces, relative to what this would have valued the company at a year or two ago?


For reference, 18 months ago, Prophecy Platinum put out a 43-101 for their Wellgreen deposit in the Yukon.  It showed over 12+ million ounces of PGMs+Au, plus over 2.6 billion pounds of Nickel, 2.4 billion pounds of Copper, some Cobalt, and a bunch of other exotic metals.  This summer they put out a PEA showing a $2.4 billion dollar NPV, and a 32% IRR for the project.


Well, those 12 million ounces of PGMS and gold (2.4 million ounces of gold, the rest is platinum and palladium) are dollar equivalent to 9+ million ounces of gold.  Hmmm, NIKL's 9 million AuEq ounces, PRB's 10M ozs Au, pretty close.  Does PRB have 5 billion pounds of base metals as well?  No?  Well, maybe most of your market cap is cash.


I look at PRB and their $131M market cap, and then look at NKL's $68M market cap, and I have to wonder....


Is PRB overvalued right now, or is NKL undervalued right now?  I don't know how many shorts there are on Probe right now, but I do know they've almost disappeared for NKL.


To be fair, when Probe shows 10 million ounces of gold in a 43-101, and assuming the market cap hasn't changed, that would make your gold worth $13 per ounce.  That is much, much less than the two recent acquisitions - $50/oz Au takeover offer for Prodigy Gold, or the $100/oz Au takeover offer for Queenstake.


Also, to be fair, NKL's 2.4M oz Au, by itself is valued at $28.33 / oz Au.

NKL's 5.3M oz of Platinum are worth $12.83 / oz Pt.  Platinum has almost caught up to Gold in price per ounce again.  Call it 7.7 million ounces of gold and platinum.  Throw in the palladium to get to 9+ million gold equivalent ounces.  These 9M AuEq ounces are worth $7.55 / oz AuEq.  Just the precious metals.  Excluding all of the far more valuable base metals.  $7.55 per ounce!  


Maybe the shorters think you are about to get whacked down.  Personally, I'm hoping that the market is about to come to their collective senses and lift both of these companies up much closer to the recent takeover offers their peers just received in the past few months.