I think Passport's stock will react favorably to the PEA (and concurrent updated NI 43-101 reports). These will be released in Feb/March, 2013. Once these are out, the company hopes to sign an off-take agreement and/or have a strategic investor come in at the project level. So, I think during 1h 2013 the stock will be trading a lot higher. Remember, it's trading at less than 2% of the prospective NPV that we migtht see in the company's PEA.So, if Passport is trading at 4% of its prospective NPV six months from now, that's not an agressive valuation that would scare prospective investors away. But continued execution is paramount. If by the end of 2013 there's no off-take or strategic partner on board, then all bets are off.
The other public potash junior in the same basin in Arizona is Prospect Global Resources, (PGRX). Recall, these guys paid $2,100 per potash resource acre and Passport paid $400 per acre. Therefore, I believe that downside in Passport share is limited, i.e. that someone like Apollo, (who's in the process of loaning $100 million to Prospect Global) or BHP, RIO, VALE, MOS or AGU, would be thrilled to buy Passport's acres at an 80% discount to what Prospect Global paid for their own land holdings.In fact, Passport's current EV of about $40 million (the company has zero debt) means that Passport's acres are trading at ~20% less than what they paid for them. And that's after 2-3 years of de-risking from drilling, mine plan work, permitting, enviornmental studies, etc.
Mangement is clearly adding value. They are working closely with both the Hopi Indians and private-listed resource owner NNZ Potash to develop mining partnerships and collaboration. I see Passport stock as one that could re-rate higher upon further de-risking without having to be acquired and without having a bull market in the beaten down natural resources space.