"I seem to remember that at least 1 of the other fault compartments were dry, and as I tend to believe more in the lower range of POE's numbers, 1-2 mill bbl is my comfort range, to each his own. "
Yes, your memory is correct. Compartments B and C were dry. Compartment D they could not reach from the then authorized platform (by long reach hole) and, therefore, had to wait till the present drilling. So both compartments A and D have now been established to have oil in them. The geology is comlex and I think you are being very pessimistic, but that is a matter of opinion until POE and the restr of us get more facts through more drilling and testing.
However, keep in perspective that this is a very large area. We are only talking here of prospect L53-D East (that has the 4 aforementioned compartments). This prospect is one of the smallest. As Rock has mentioned, there are many other prospects nearby with a mid estimate of 39.3 mil barrels. If I recall correctly, their next drilling will be prospects F and H which are much larger in areal extent.
I think we need to wait and see what the production from this latest well is before we jump into too many conclusions. The drilling here is cheap and fast. Last year they were restrained by govt. approvals. This year they have much more freedom of action to drill and test. Within a month we will know much more.