My 2-3 mmbbl number is not certified 2P, but my estimate of L53A at less than a million and L53E (discovery from last year) at 1-2 million bbls. I would not expect it to be anywhere close to 5 million, based on the early water and indications from management in the Q2 MD&A:
"The reserve report of Pan Orient at December 31, 2011 assigned no reserves to the L53-D East oilfield since there was no production license in place. As part of the production license application for L53-D East, a third party contingent resource estimate for one of four fault compartments (compartment "A") was completed at the end of April and submitted with the application in early May for a production license for the L53-D East sandstone field. This report estimated contingent resources for compartment "A" of: 1C 0.264 million barrels, 2C 0.944 million barrels and 3C 4.242 million barrels. Three zones that are interpreted as oil bearing, but were not tested as they were deemed certain oil, were not included in the assessment."
I seem to remember that at least 1 of the other fault compartments were dry, and as I tend to believe more in the lower range of POE's numbers, 1-2 mill bbl is my comfort range, to each his own.