Just to re-inforce what Rock has been saying, I always thought of Sawn Lake as a "sleeper".  Unlike Thailand and Indo, where we have to explore for oil, here we already know that the oil is in the ground.  A lot of oil = 214.2 million barrels of it,  as the "Best" estimate per the 2011 Contingent Resource report (see page 13 of the Jan 2013 presentation).  153 million barrels is attributed to POE's 71.8% interest.

 

What we do not know, is whether that huge pool of oil can be recovered profitably.  That is what the pilot project currently underway is aiming to establish.  If successful, it will increase POE's NAV by comparable to anything in Thailand and Indo.  So POE is really a 3 legged company, even though the current excitement is focussed on Thailand and Indo.

 

If the pilot is successful, and I personally think the odds are quite favourable, then POE could sell (Baytex or Penn West being  potential buyers), or could develop as part of its 3 pronged portfolio.  If they decide to sell, we are talking several hundred million dollars (the 10% discounted PV per page 13 is $612 mil x 71.8% = $439 mil.  Not insignificant).

 

The point is that 2013 is proving to be the year when all the assets POE has assembled over the years have matured to the point where they are going to be tested and, even if only a portion is successful, the value of the company will be a multiple of where it is today.  Of course, nothing is guaranteed in investing and everything that could go wrong might go wrong (including a total collapse of oil prices).  However, that is an outlier outcome, and that is why we never put all our eggs in one basket and stay diversified, however enticing the prospect might be..