Devil's advocate to your theory...if things were progressing towards TD, why not update the masses letting them know that drilling conitnues and that they are currently at xxxx depth and there are no current problems.  They are well past their own stated deadline for reaching TD.  i don't think you can reasonable conclude any other scenario other than things have not gone as expected and they are pulling out all of the stops to salvage the hole. My money is on the next NR not being good for us who have been patiently waiting.