Makes sense to me....
Unless silver spot doesn't move for the next 3 years.... like it hasn't for the last 3.
Or silver takes a dive over the fiscal cliff, which it certainly would. (in 2008, the manipulators had to make sure gold and silver were killed when the equity markets were cut in half.... there's every reason to think that will be repeated).
Or the fiscal cliff could kill senior silver company SP's for years to come causing them to drop their interest in expansion in favor of bolstering cash flow and capital preservation.
Or they could easily change the rules in the futures markets, as they routinely have (altering margin requirements or fractional metal holdings).
Or Mexico could nationalizing mines, or impose huge tariffs. No, it's not reasonable to expect that a huge jump in silver prices will go unnoticed and that they will simply allow their metal to walk across the border.
Or Mexico could monetize gold and silver, probably making it's export illegal altogether.
Or the Canadian government could impose a windfal tax on companies or individuals holding precious metals.
Or there could be a cartel attack anywhere near the region which would make LP a toxic risk overnight.....
or a thousand other risks that everyone likes to conveniently ignore...
Think about what we've seen over the last 4 years people. Why is everyone still talking in best case scenarios and ignoring the considerable risks that still sit in front of this small exploration company with limited funds? (and yes, they are limited funds. Contrary to what Gary tells you, funding for junior silvers is horrific right now, and any possible financier who takes a look at Orko's recent track record will need to possess a wild sense of adventure before committing any funds).
Gary said the PEA will be ready in February. I'm therefore expecting August (Best case scenario). No, AMEC is not working extra hard to get it completed. When the report is completed, they're out of a job (assuming a buyout soon after). Would you rush your work to become unemployed?
Gold at $1900 to $2000 by early 2013???? c'mon. Haven't we learned our lesson yet about predicting prices? Silver was supposed to be $100 a long time ago. That may not happen for half a decade yet, maybe longer. And the professionals, most of whom are trying to sell you gold and silver, don't have any idea what the future brings any more than we do.
I still have my full position... but I invested in a silver company, not silver. I don't care it it's highly leveraged to the silver price. I'd much rather have a mediocre return now, that I can invest in other undervalued opportunities, than have to sit through this for years, missing a multitude of other opportunities while assuming the risk of a junior minor for the mere POSSIBILITY of a larger payday.
.... and I suspect that this is what the institutional investors say loudly in Gary's ear when his phone rings. They aren't interested in a 4 year chess game either. They want results, which is likely why one of them bowed out a few weeks ago, dropping about 20% off our capitalization.
Gary isn't a sage, the increase in the resources announced in September was the first good news, following years of epic failures. For me, he hasn't turned a corner. I'm still not interested in paying him $30,000 a month (plus bonuses and stock options), so that every half year he can hold a press conference blaming everyone else (PAA, AMEC, Minefinders, the silver industry....etc.), for their ongoing schedule set-backs.
I see a much larger chance being hit by a multitde of risks than I do of the silver price and/or OK's sp rising significantly in the near to medium future.
Time is not on Orko's side.
I'd be over-the-moon happy to get a $3.00 offer (which is still a ridiculous, and unheard of, 100% premium), and leave the rest to a possible bidding war. And please no one try to sell the story of a 250% once-in-a-lifetime premium that was paid to a junior 8 years ago when the entire sector was on fire. Orko is not Amazon at the height of the dot com bubble.
This is where I get lynched by the entire board... oh well... what can you do.