Hi Slick1, thanks for your comments.
First of all, I'd like to frame my comments by letting you know that I'm not one of the people that bought in much higher. I've been watching and waiting. My first buy was at .79 and I bought more on Friday in the high .60s. From my perspective, there is a very limited downside and a huge upside to this stock.
I am also waiting for updates on Waitapu-1, Arakamu-1 and 2, and Wairere-1. Until I hear it from the company, I'm not going to assume that they 'missed the mark'. As for what they spent on them, is $14 million a wild guess on your part? Not that it matters to me, as even if it was the whole $370 million that Stack implied the company declined by over the past year, instead of the $14 million you mention, it is all sunk costs that took place before I became attracted to what the company has to offer NOW.
Of course the Origin assets aren't going to be worth exactly what they paid for them. They negotiated the price when oil was lower and didn't close the deal until now. Sure, the facility and the leases could be worth less, but if so, not much less, and it is far more likely that they are worth more now.
'the refusal of management to clarify anything'? Have you tried talking to management? I've found Rhylin to be very helpful. Plus, you are complaining about a company that has been providing updates every 3 to 4 weeks. That is far better than most in the industry. Are you in need of a weekly update? Is that a realistic expectation to have?
As for the production, it hasn't even been 4 weeks since the last update, so I wouldn't expect a drastic change. We were at 424 bbl/day then, and yes, we could have fallen below 400 by next week's update. If so, I'm certainly not panicing. The average for the first 3 quarters was 568 bbl/day. That was apparently good enough to hold the share price in the mid $1.30 range and even much higher. Look at what the price was at 9-12 months ago. $2.40 to $3.20. And that was with the same 568 bbl/day production numbers. What would it take to get back to 568 bbl/day production? One very minor winner or increased flow rates from the addition of artificial lifts.
If NZEC lucks out and finds even a just slightly better winner, something that will flow in the 500 bbl/day range, then they won't have to worry about anything. They will be able to fund all future drilling directly from their positive cash flow. Well, perhaps not the deep targets, but even those could be funded internally if the company drills up enough 100+ bbl/day winners first. This is what I would hope they are patient enough to do. However, if they do want to JV a few targets I won't hold it against them. Do you know how many wells they are planning to drill in the next 12 months?
Arakamu-1A - you probably don't get an update until March. Arakamu-2 - you probably don't get an update until April. 'Stuck Tubing' happens. They will solve the problem eventually. Wairere-1 is probably early May at best. Look at the Copper Moki wells. They all took about 4 months from their spud dates until production. The work takes time. You can complain all you want about the wait and not being able to get info on them, but it won't make any difference. Again, the work takes time. You'll hear about them when the work is done and the results are in.
Wallywill, yes, they did say BOE not BOD. Thanks for correcting my mistake. If they can achieve 3000 BOE/d later this year, I'll be very happy. Hopefully they will give the gas production numbers in the next update. They seemed to have missed them in the last one.
If NZEC gets back to 568 bbl/d and around 1000 mcf/d by the end of the quarter, do you expect the stock to jump back to the $1.30 range? This level of production seemed to have no problem holding the share price at this level and much, much higher for the past 12 months. If you disagree, then may I ask what you think they need to get to in production to get back to the mid $1.30s again? We were there just 4 weeks ago. However, now, getting back to that level would mean a 100% jump from the current price. This is why I bought in last week.
For the current longs, do you really think you are going to find a better time to average down? I think you are being handed a gift right here. Take it while you can! I did, and I will again.