Money has been moving into the sector since june - july.  The big move is over but there could be a 30-40% gain from here in an Energy ETF however, oil has come up significantly and a $10 up move is probably not going to happen there.  The potential move up for NVS should be the same. But it would be a BOLD move to catch a few smaller waves then time the big one but you just may be paddling out when that one comes.