As someones whos been burnt a couple times. One part of me expects that there is no formal deal being formed with any one company. The SP is behaving like NVS simply created a liquidity event for those who want NO part in the company. They are reviewing how much the company is worth, and that is all. Its only as good as someones willing to pay. Infact, when the hands are out to sell, no one comes knocking imho. But when the company doesnt want to sell, but rather build a compnay people want to invest in, its taken over.
OR the SP behavior is merely created to appear nothing is happening on the selling front, and its the big boys "shaking the lose shares free" to accumulate, trading, making $$ on the way down or up, selling pennies.
My advice either way. Stop Loss. Always a safe move regardless. But make sure its not at a greedy level. i.e. >1.02, as there's always a dip before good news comes out. Again, to shake the tree and steal lose shares. All imho.