All we ever hear is new supply coming etc but I forgot that the older mines are shutting down also.
Vale not ruling out iron-ore at 180 this year.
Folha de São Paulo reports Vale's (NYSE:VALE) executive director for iron ore and strategy, José Carlos Martins, expects the "high volatility" in prices seen in 2012 will continue this year.
Mazrtins expects iron ore to fluctuate between $110 to $180 a tonne, with a bias to the lower end of the range in 2013.
Last year the spot price bounced between a high just below $150 a tonne in April only to crash in August, hitting a three-and-half year low of $87.50 early September according to data from Steelindex.
The benchmark import price of 62% iron ore fines at China's Tianjin port was $147.70 a tonne on Wednesday.
Martins welcomed the trend in the iron ore industry to conduct more business based on the spot price, despite the fact that it brings with it more volatility.
The iron ore trade only started to move decisively away from annual contracts little over five years ago.
The big three – Vale, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton – still conduct only about 15% of its business based on the spot price. The remainder is quarterly.
The Rio de Janeiro-based company's expansion of its already massive Carajas mine referred to as S-11D would add 90 million metric tonnes of iron ore – some 30% to Vale's current output – and begin operations in 2016, but Martins says he does not foresee an oversupply situation.
Vale's output has been sitting around 300 million tonnes for the last five years and S-11D would only temporarily lead to relative growth in global supply says Martins:
"The market expands by 50–60 million tonnes a year and 60–70 million tonnes of supply is also taken off the market annually as mines reach the end of their lives. We therefore need 100–120 million tonnes of new capacity."