It seems Scotia likes the buy back.  I Look forward to the coming months....

 

New Millennium Iron Corporation (NML-T C$1.27)

To Buy Back Shares - Normal Course Issuer Bid

Mark Turner, MBA, P.Eng. - (416) 863-7484

(Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada)

[email protected]

Samar Sidhu, MBA, CFA - (416) 863-7284

(Scotia Capital Inc. - Canada)

[email protected]

Div. (NTM) $0.00

Div. (Curr.) $0.00

Yield (Curr.) 0.0%

Rating: Sector Perform Target 1-Yr: C$2.90 ROR 1-Yr: 128.3%

Risk Ranking: Speculative

Valuation: 0.38x Minesite NAV + 1.0x Net Cash Items

Key Risks to Target: Commodity price, operating and technical risks, environmental and legal risks

Event

¦ NML has announced it has received approvals to conduct a normal

course issuer bid.

Implications

¦ NML is authorized to purchase up to 5M common shares, representing

2.8% of the 179.5M currently issued and outstanding common shares.

¦ Share repurchase may commence on January 23, 2013, with a daily

maximum of 46,091 common shares (with the exception of block

purchases), and conclude on the earlier of the date on which purchases

under the bid have been completed or January 22, 2014.

¦ NML reported cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments

(GICs, Treasury bills, and bonds) of $77.5M at the end of Q3/12. After

spending on its projects in the Labrador Trough during Q4/12, we

estimate this balance to have decreased to approximate $52M.

Recommendation

¦ We maintain our Sector Perform rating and $2.90 one-year target price.

We recently increased our target price 9% after rolling forward our DCF

model and incorporating Q3/12 financial results. Please see our detailed

note, Updating our Metal Price Outlook & Key Takeaways from Scotia's

2013 Commodity Conference, dated January 21, 2013, for more detail.

Qtly Adj. EPS (FD) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year P/E

2011A $-0.02 A $-0.02 A $-0.01 A $-0.01 A $-0.06 n.m.

2012E $-0.01 A $-0.01 A $-0.02 $-0.01 $-0.05 n.m.

2013E $-0.01 $-0.02 $-0.02 $0.01 $-0.04 n.m.

2014E $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.03 $0.13 9.5x

(FY-Dec.) 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E

Adj EPS $-0.06 $-0.06 $-0.05 $-0.04 $0.13

Cash Flow/Share $-0.06 $-0.03 $-0.02 $0.01 $0.27

Price/Earnings n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. 9.5x

Revenues (M) $0 $0 $0 $12 $92

EBITDA (M) $-9 $-11 $-11 $-9 $42

Current Ratio 3.8x 17.1x 14.4x 8.5x 11.8x

IBES EPS 2012E: $-0.06 BVPS13E $0.91 NAV $7.76

IBES EPS 2013E: $-0.04 P/NAV 0.16x

Historical price multiple calculations use FYE prices. Source: Reuters; company reports; Scotiabank GBM estimates.

All values in C$ unless otherwise indicated.

Capitalization

Shares O/S (M)

(Basic)

179.0

Market Cap (M) $227.3

Float O/S (M) (Basic) 131.8

Float Value (M) $167.4

ScotiaView Analyst