Let's use two cases

$1000 for current operational metrics and actual g/t current, POG is assumed slightly lower than POG market as these are dore bars that must be processed.  Then the Pre-feasability numbers (ideal) 

Income per month current  2236 oz x $1500 = 3.35MM

Estimated Cost per month                   13871 T * $1000 = 13.87MM

Pre-F Cost per month                            13871 T* $464 = 6.44MM

Profit ex financial obligations = -10.5MM or - 3.09MM (Ideal case)

We can assume that production will increase, maybe not at 30% per month as Dec was understated and Jan overstated (IMHO).  Say 20% per month as an optomistic number of ramp up combined with higher grades which acheives target by July 2013.

2683 + 3219 + 3863 + 4634 + 5563 = 19962oz + 10110oz = 30 073oz rounded to 30000oz for ease of calulation and consideration of 96.8% and pobable grade increase.

Feb + March + April +May +June + July 2012 to Jan 2013 = total 2012/2013 corporate production 1st year

30000oz x $1500 = 45MM first year gross.

Daily Tonnes processed

447 + 536 + 643 + 772 + 927+ ramp up totals to date assumed +/- 54000 with 5.5 to 6.07g/t (per bulk sample and current NR)  80460 + 54000=  134460 rounded to 135 000Tonnes.

135 000 * $1000 = 135MM or 135 000 * $ 464 =  62.46MM 

Ideal 34000oz * 1650 POG = $56.1MM

This year end target exceeds projected daily Tonnes of 800t/d and uses highest possible grade of 7.38g/t, with these metrics MTO does not appear to become cash positive even after 1 year of production.

This helps remove the noise of financing and speculation regarding cost to recover vs. actual per oz , 96.8 recovery, staffing, IRR of 85% bonus, warrants, royalty, and includes ZERO royalty, tax, partnership, payback of loans or missed production due to weather, equipment, staffing, etc.

Do not forget the 11Million plus flow through shares private placement (news 12/27/2012) thathave a 4 month HOLD from placement date. Flow thru shares sold for .24 Canadian can also cap the price if MTO moves up.

Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/bullboards/messagedetail.aspx?s=MTO&t=LIST&m=32054806&l=0&pd=0&r=0#MkVkVhi67k4FyPOk.99

 

Thoughts?