I agree with you on most points. Unlike you I do not think that Sh iite Egypt is all that important and the focus should be narrowed to the Sunny zones where there is political stability.
5MM cards (Egypt) may seem like a carrot but it indeed is going to be volume based more that profit making. Picking up 500K cards in Saudi would do Mint in better stead that dealing with Morsi and this religious fanatics.
Just my opinion.
However, I reflect your optimism in that Mint