Venture Comparative Chart

Going back to the Venture, it’s interesting to note that it has crossed above a down trendline on this 2.5-year weekly chart from John that also compares the CDNX with Gold and the CRB Index…theoretically, the trendline should now become new support…the Venture has been basing between 1220 and 1240 for the past 19 trading sessions…an important technical event to keep an eye on is a reversal to the upside in the 50-day moving average (SMA)….this hasn’t occurred yet but appears to be close at hand…reversals in the 50-day were followed by major moves in 2009 and 2010, and two significant rallies in 2012…with the stabilization of the situation in the euro zone, a recovery in China, and central bank support from Japan to the United States, 2013 should be a positive year for commodities and the Venture Exchange

Rumors Of The Death Of The Gold Bull Market Are Premature

According to some analysts, Gold’s bull market is over…of course, that’s a comment we’ve heard rather frequently every year for the last several years…Gold’s recent inability to push through $1,700 an ounce has, however, definitely frustrated and concerned many traders and investors, but John has a long-term chart this morning that shows Gold’s behavior at the moment is very similar to the 2008-2009 period when it struggled for six quarters to push decisively through the $1,000 barrier…throughout its 12-year bull market, Gold has found terrific support around its monthly SMA(12) where it’s trading at now…patience is the key…keep in mind, too, that Gold is not trading much above the all-in costs of production for many companies…bullion is far from being in a “bubble”…many speculators and momentum players have left the scene for now, which has occurred from time to time over the last dozen years, but physical demand remains strong and the Fed’s balance sheet has crossed the $3 trillion mark for the first time with no signs of slowing down…

Updated Silver Charts – Short-Term & Long-Term

As usual every Monday morning, John has updated charts for Silver…some short-term technical weakness came into the market last week, but the support band between $30.50 and $31 is very strong and we’d be surprised if Silver were to break below that…

Silver Short-Term Chart

Silver Long-Term Chart

There have been only a handful of occasions over the last several years when RSI(2) on the 15-year monthly Silver chart has fallen to 30% or less, one of them being just recently when Silver dipped briefly below $30…when you follow this indicator, it’s hard to go wrong…RSI(2) has a clear pattern as it swings from overbought to oversold…what’s it’s telling us now, after bouncing off the 30 level, is that the downside risk at the moment is minimal…