The money to be made here is not based on knee jerk reactions to news releases and short term surprises; it will be based on execution of the plan, and not being out the stock when this execution gets more widely recognized by the market. Very roughly, I see
Trent & Tyne - present 20mm gross/ 4mm net - about 3448 / 689 boepd. T6, plus exercising the option to increase INA's share to 37.5%m increases the likely 2013 exit rate net 1650 boepd.
Huntington - exit rate for INA's share will be about 4500 bopd + 689 boepd.
Combined exit rate 6500-7000 boepd
Add Orlando in 2014 - 7500 bopd; exit rate region 14,000 bopd
Add Kells in 2015 - circa 6000 bopd and Add West Wick in 2016 circa 5800 bopd.
There will be decline affecting the aggregates numbers, and there will be things not included such as the bolt ons of Ninian, Oroan, Ronan etc. Things will go worng, and possibly some things will go better than expected, but the company's forecast for operating cash flow, using the new shares outstanding, indicates exit rate of 0.48 (2013) / 0.69 ( 2014) / 1.14 (2015) / 1.40 (2016).
It is difficult to keep your eye on the ball, and not react too much to short term surprises or external considerations, but it seems to me that management has its eye on the ball, and if they can execute, then longer term shareholders will be quite happy.