These last two articles from Kade and Kettl have given us some of the very best insight into the choices Kyrgyrstan faces. I found myself reading and re-reading Kettl's article. Thanks, guys - awesome investigating. Here is a scenario that is my "sweetheart" outcome that would not punish either side too much.
Kyrgyrstan joins the Eurasian Union (Its migrant remittance situation is saved). But the big fear of tariffs and regulations between China and the new Eurasian member, Kyrgyrstan, does not completely "decimate" the trade with western China because Moscow sees value in letting Kyrgyrstan grow which would alleviate the migrant worker pressure on Russia. People would be more likely to stay home. So Moscow goes easy on these punishing tariffs. Yes, there would be less profit in the easy trade with western China, but not a crippling amount. Moscow is under pressure to cut back on immigration. Letting Kyrgyrstan prosper might be the way to ease the cross-border migrant worker pressure that 60% of Russians are angry about. (OK, maybe wishful thinking).
I prefer a Russain relationship. I am nervous about the hoard of Chinese cash and their itchy fingers to buy up anything in sight.