A couple of points. The cost of construction is 175.4 mil nearly 3 x what they had in the bank when the previous admin said they had plenty. To be safe they should raise 200 mill I assume they will need all of the 54Mil to cover other operating expense. The new furnaces may help this but we need data. MCP and Lynas have raised these amounts and more but it is expensive in today’s market.
Next they use 2015 predicted sales pricing. The most glaring problem is La which rises from $12.00 today to $27.50 in 2015. This is while MCP and Lynas bring more product on line per year than produced in the world last year. Compare all the prices to today’s and draw your own conclusions.
TMR currently has Basket price as $38 / KG GWM uses $53 / KG this is a 20% difference. Using GWMs NPV chart this reduces NPV to $376 Million So they want to invest 174 mil now to realize a total profit of $200 mil in 11 years does not sound very good. High risk money likes to double every 3 to 4 years not earn 115% in 11 years. IF COGS is $10.00 higher and we use $38 for basket price this will never break even. If they have half the % cost overruns that MCP and Lynas had this will not break even at $53.00. They have such a fine record on the execution side I am sure they will keep overruns to the 17 mil allotted.
Next is COGs. They predict $12.79, this is less than Lynas at $15.00 and Lynas only separates lights and then only partially. It is more than MCP but MCP’s cost right now are over $30.00. MCP’s costs come down to $7.00 when the Alkaline plant opens that recovers all acids caustics and water using very cheap natural gas. There are no plans here to build such a plant. In Ucores PEA their COGs are estimated at $122.78 per KG. Steen’s ore is 22 times richer and this reduces Mining cost and the fist steps of concentration and chloride substantially. However GWM’s final separation is much cheaper as well how is this going to happen.
I need a description of how this can happen before I believe it. This $12.79 just does not make sense with what other companies are giving for COGs.
I would encourage all to read the pea carefully and compare the facts used with what is going on.