Goseahawks. With your point #3 that the SP has been suppressed or keeps falling on good news and what are the odds that this will continue?
I have a few thoughts for you. I would argue that GWG is a good company with excellent prospects in a group of companies that don't all have the same rosy future. It's also lumped in with all other REE miners in the collective minds of most investors and considered a small company. Politically there have and continue to be questions about the will or ability to change government policy worldwide to be more supportive of green technologies in which GWG could benefit or suffer. Lastly the core commodity prices of the rare earths saw a manipulated explosion up a few years back and have since been in a return to post-bubble prices. These are some of the Macro factors that in my view have way more to do with the current SP than the Micro factors (GWG the company factors)
My analogy here is standing in hurricane Sandy with the best umbrella you can buy. If you own this umbrella but you are standing in the street in the hurricane it's likely not going to matter much. You will still get wet!
So many times on the board there are questions about GWG management not moving the SP but we wouldn't ask the same questions about why the guy with a great umbrella standing in the middle of hurricane Sandy still got wet.
What we have with GWG is a great umbrella and we're standing in hurricane Sandy. We should all be more focused on when it will stop being stormy than on the company specifics where the current SP is concerned. GWG can keep making the umbrella better but as long as we are in a storm the full benefit of that will not be realized.
The final part of your question is about the odds that the SP will drop further on good news. My view is that this is indeed possible BUT that is because the macro factors have still not turned to our advantage not because the news per se is poor.
I will leave you with the thought that I believe both the macro and micro factors that impact the GWG share price are in the process of bottoming out and are in fact set to turn advantageous again. There is political motivation to pay attention to rare earth both in terms of green technology and also in terms of countries wanting secure supplies of their own. The price drop in rare earths appears to be ending or bottoming. We in fact saw an increase finally! We may still have a year or two of uncertainty here though but it's the one MACRO factor that we must watch very closely. With respect to GWG being part of a large group of REE companies that are essentially undifferentiated in the collective investors mind I also believe that in this case MICRO factors will begin to change that reality. In this case GWG will separate itself from the pack and with a little more time the hundreds of competitors will be reduced to a few successful companies and therefore eliminate the Macro factor of being a small misunderstood company in a really large misunderstood sector.
2013 will be a year that the macro factors reverse course again and turn positive for rare earth companies. Governments will act to support companies outside of china in some fashion. Likely they will only need to sign deals with them to show us that direction. There are MANY deals being signed now that for me show this MACRO factor is changing now.
2013 will be a year that rare earth shortages spoken about as a concern before the bubble are actually a REALITY. This will stop the Commodity prices of rare earths falling and put a bottom in place at a minimum and at its best we will get appreciation of price in rare earths commodities.
2013 will be a year that demand for the magnets made from materials GWG produces for electric cars, wind turbines, etc grows substantially. More importantly the security of supply that manufacturers must have to chase this technology will be obtainable. See the deals the Japanese and Americans are signing with countries beyond china as evidence.
2013 will be a year that the rare earth investors will see more shakeout in the sector. The strong will survive, the weak will not and the sector will once again be popular! Expect high reward for success and expect to be punished if you bought the wrong umbrella!