Some numbers to look at and consider or discard.
Management said after the first well came in that the NAV was $ 1.60 with less than 20 million shares out. I believe they said that the NAV would be approx $ 2.60 if the second well came in with similiar numbers and again the shares out were around 20 million.
Along comes Paradigm and puts a value of $ 4.60 with 25 ish million shares out.
Keep in mind that this is all based on the Kakwa properties alone.
At some point Mr O & G Bulliten comes along and puts a value of 10 bucks on the company.
THEN the financing is done. Now there is 45 ish million out as of mid Mar next year. AND they have done the first transaction with Deventa. Royal Bank puts a $ 3.25 target price up and Paradigms is a bit richer at $ 3.50. THEN they do the second purchase of land with Deventa.
No one says much of anything.
THEN someone buys 40 ish thousand acres from Tourmaline and Perpetual @ 3800 bucks per acre. Mr O & G Bulletin comes out with a price tag of $ 8.50 ish on land value alone and calls that conservative due to the Kakwa property.
I heard Haywood has a valuation of 7 bucks or so.
My question is, why are people selling at these prices? Why not get out of the way of a train coming downhill on the track with no brakes.
I understand their are many reasons to sell stock. One of which is to limit the money to be made. Being cautious is great. Being a chicken is foolhardy.
The company has 20 - 25 million cash, a third well drilling, a seond well to tie in, a desire to have 5 wells finished by mid summer, a development well for July on Wapiti, with a potential Natural Gas plant for next summer.
That of course means nothing to many people. they want their 30 % or whatever, or they have a number in mind to get out, maybe buy a car or a nice chunk on a mortgage. All good reasons to move on. I'd like to know where you will find a sweeter deal than this.
I am in at the lowest price of anyone, I was very lucky, I'm still here, I have been tempted to try to trade my position, it would have been a big mistake more often than not. Before you sell, ask yourself if it is due to fear. Then look at the numbers. I see no reason to become fearful until it reaches 6 bucks or so. Then we will see what I am made of.
Good Luck and have a very Prosperous New Year, If you will let yourself that is.