I don't have expertise, just opinion.
1, The explorecos are really really beaten down and it'll take a lot of excitement from drill results to make any exploreco ever go back up.
2, CXB already has a lot of overhead resistance at 45-60 cents from last year. Maybe those holders have all sold by now, so maybe most of that has already been eaten through? But I'm not 100% sure of that.
3, The rational expectation with CXB is that it finds enough that BTO wants to buy it out - that's our exit strategy, I think. BTO has done nothing to tell me that's not their intent, and a few things that tell me that's precisely what they want to do. But I think BTO wouldn't buy it in 2013, because it won't be advanced enough that it can justify the buy. As well, there's a limit to what BTO will pay for this land, and I'd say $200M is about it. (On the other hand, BTO did buy Radius' property this year.)
4, Comparables. Compare CXB to any exploreco who has a market cap over $200M right now. ITH is $200M and they have 10M oz - admittedly in Alaska where there'll never be a gold mine. Pilot Gold is $167M, and they have deposits in good jurisdictions which are hinting at quite nice grade. LYD is $258M with a completed feasibility study showing 3.6Moz P&P and according to Brent Cook they are a guaranteed buyout (though the market isn't treating LYD as if that was true). Almaden is $175M even though their Ixtaca deposit is supposed to become a monster.
CXB could get back to $100M, on good results. They have enough cash to keep going, a big brother willing to fund them, a friendly jurisdiction, and a property that should grow in coming years; so they have better price support than most explorecos. My thesis is that BTO's recent activity suggests that good results are forthcoming, and as a wild guess I'd hope their 50 cent warrants are priced to go in the money when the forthcoming results are released. How far in the money I don't know, but that's still a better than a double from here.
I'm intrigued at the December CXB presentation, since it shows the Borosi airborne mag and radiometric have been completed, and can't remember having heard of these "Santa Juana" and "San Francisco" targets before (though admittedly I haven't been paying attention).
I see nothing else that can give me a possible double with very limited downside over the next 1-2 months, so that's my rationalization.
But I don't think CXB will become a $200M stock in the next 2 months. Hey, if they've hit a couple new targets with stunning grade, and the exploreco scene stops getting slaughtered, then maybe. But I try not to trade on those sorts of hopes.