Scenario 1:

I agree  with  your  first observation..... If  OZ  drills  the  first portion and they  feel  comfortable  with  what they  find  they   will   have to anti  up   $10 million.....  But  if  PBX  is  still  trading    under  .20  then  they  would  have  to  stupid   not  to  offer to  take  out   all  of  PBX   for essentially  a 40 - 50% premium  over  market  instead.

They  could  essentially  get  the  whole  company   for less than $50 million

Thus the downside risk here is essentially zero and minimum upside .30 ...

Scenario 2

I figure  OZ  comes  into  some  kind  of  financing  here to get  their  foot   firmly in the  door via  equity  position  or  preferred  share purchase ( essentially  a  prepayment  of a portion  the  first 10 million) say  5  million?? with a  conversion  price ..... That  conversion  price   will reflect  what  OZ  is  paying   or  willing to  pay  for   PBX.

If this is the  case  and  OZ   does   this  .....  then  PBX  should  move toward  that  conversion  price  in  short  order... JMHO