I agree with your first observation..... If OZ drills the first portion and they feel comfortable with what they find they will have to anti up $10 million..... But if PBX is still trading under .20 then they would have to stupid not to offer to take out all of PBX for essentially a 40 - 50% premium over market instead.
They could essentially get the whole company for less than $50 million
Thus the downside risk here is essentially zero and minimum upside .30 ...
I figure OZ comes into some kind of financing here to get their foot firmly in the door via equity position or preferred share purchase ( essentially a prepayment of a portion the first 10 million) say 5 million?? with a conversion price ..... That conversion price will reflect what OZ is paying or willing to pay for PBX.
If this is the case and OZ does this ..... then PBX should move toward that conversion price in short order... JMHO