Seems that we should be into a timeframe when we learn the results of both the TTU & Shire work programs shortly. Admittedly, this has taken much longer than most would have imagined and has probably led people to believe that the work programs have been a failure. One could draw that conclusion, but that simply doesn't add up with science todate. It's well known, that something in the range of 2% of an injected dose of herceptin in the parenchyma is considered efficacious for treating brain metasteses. As DrJ pointed out, we delivered 6.6%, well above that which is considered efficacious. Couple this with the positive results of the xenograft study, pathology tests etc. and it's difficult to imagine that we won't have a therapeutic effect. One of the problems in dealing with academia, is that they work on their own timetable and it can be quite frustrating. Also, don't forget that Dr. Paul Lockman and Dr. Quentin Smith signed their names to the PR that revealed we got 6.6% across. These two are considered industry experts in the field of HER2+ brain metasteses and Dr. Quentin Smith worked on the herceptin program back in the 1990's during the clinical trials. If the phase III study against the brain metasteses is successful, it will in my estimation put the company into a different league. Will the market reaction be immediate? Don't know that, but I cannot imagine that the likes of Roche will be able to ignore this.
With respect to the Shire work program, we've heard rumours about confirmation tests, Shire not believing the results because they were very good etc. Not sure about these, but the fact that we are still working on the project might lend some credibility to the rumours. As I've stated previously, we know that for some reason enzymes do not transport quite as efficiently as other biologics, but once again if you use the 6.6% transport of BT2111 as the baseline, it's hard to imagine that we're not coming up with something therapeutic. We know from the study that Shire published last year (on their intrathecal program), they were getting less than 1% across and closer to .5% and this had a dramatic effect on children in the MPS II CNS clinical trial. I had the opportunity to read the testimony written by the mother of one of the children in the program and it was in her words - miraculous.
DrJ pointed out some of the points with respect to the market activity, who's buying and who's not selling. These are important clues and should not be discounted. Yes, we have been pasted by Anonymous for a long time and so has almost every other stock on the Venture Exchange. Even with all the strong fundatmentals, BTI investors will sell their stock to lock in significant gains. Whatever the reasons for selling, I certainly can't blame people for taking some money of the table. Many have realized 200% plus gains over the past year.
We've got the other programs as well: UCB, MedImmune, Abbott and whomever else were talking with. These have been discussed in many previous posts. As for me, when I consider the above, it suggests the odds are in my favour and think it would be prudent to stick with this for sometime.