futomaki, good advice and good luck staying away. I tried but I've gotten so used to checking the board multiple times a day that it's like having any other addiction...hard to give it up. I've stayed away for a week at a time but then I'm wondering if I missed anything important. I'd say only about 10 percent of posts on this board contain good information. Since the release of the 43-101 we certainly have way more frequent posters, some of which certainly seem to have agendas. I do think that longs are sensitive to negative information but when a new poster shows up with a lot of negative comments at this stage of the game it sets people off.
Even if one digests all the downgrades (or negatives) of the original report, including analysts like Brent Cook and his opinion, it is still possible to get an update of 5 million ounces and this somewhat takes into account the capping issue. I believe Brent had said adding a cap could potentially cut the resource estimate by forty something percent. Smearing is another story but I think Snowden is filling in these gaps when using the other drill holes. I do think this will likely drop the resource estimate because there are going to be intercepts with lower grade gold. I think this is the reason many longs are still hopeful for numbers close to the original estimate but realistically know it is much more likely to be downgraded. That leaves everyone wondering about the magic number. I think there is somewhat of a consensus that the least we can expect is 2 million ounces, which then destroys PG's reputation, and BGM management! The alternative is we get a significant downgrade to 3-5 million ounces...still possible in analysts views even when you factor in many concerns publicly noted. Lastly we get PG's report confirmed and we are lucky enough to be part of a company that hit the motherlode!
A downgrade to 2 million ounces would no doubt hurt the sp in the short term for sure but 2 million ounces for Cow plus additional ounce potential is still worth more than 1.22 and would still provide for a buyout down the road. Factor in production and I still think the potential is there. Nobody is going to persuade me otherwise and to those who want to dispute the potential I have to ask...whay are you here to begin with? Everyone who makes a comment on this board is doing it for a reason whether it be long or short positions, paid pumpers or bashers, potential investors and the like. I was here long before most of the newbies and I'm sticking to my original thoughts that 3 million at Cow would be unblievable. There was a time when most longs remember hoping for 3 million ounces. Now everyone has heard about the 10.6 million and that is indeed a high bar.
I am going to follow futomaki...I will not make another comment on this board until there is significant positive news for BGM. I may still make one more call to the company to ask about the financial situation. If and when I do that I will update accordingly.
Cheers and an early Merry Christmas.