AOI has now fallen back to trading at about the same levels it was before the news was released on Twiga flow rates and the PaiPai well.  This is is the same in both Sweden and in North America.  In the two days after the news was released, daily trading volume in both markets has been lighter than average but there has been more selling than buying.

In Sweden, this has been seen in the daily order book depth.  Depth on the sell side during trading hours yesterday and today was nearly twice as much as buy side depth.  

http://www.netfonds.se/quotes/poslog.php

The biggest seller in Sweden today was Merrill Lynch. The biggest buyer was Nordnet Bank.

http://www.netfonds.se/quotes/paperbroker.php?paper=AOI.ST

 

 

In North American trading there has been a similar pattern over the past two days. Daily volume, as usual, is much lighter than daily volume in Sweden.  The recent trend on daily trading for AOI in North America has been the increase in the amount of the daily trade done on dark pools or alternative platforms other than the TSXV.  It seems that more and more investors are conducting their trades on a confidential dark basis, so it becomes impossible to see whether their trades have been initiated as buys or sells.

 

The question we all ask is why all of this is happening and why the shares have been unable to hold their gains. It could be concern about the upcoming Kenya elections, or it could be speculation about the Sabisa well, where results are supposedly going to be released much earlier than had been expected.

Maybe it isn't either of these things and it is something different. I do not not think robot and algorithmic trading are much responsible. When I have had the opportunity to watch the trading on AOI, the robot and algorithmic trading seems to have played a much smaller role over the past few weeks and in recent days. This is different than from mid-December to mid January when this type of trading accounted for a large percentage of daily trading volumes.

 

I would say that the Twiga flow rates did much to derisking the entire south Lokichar basin. The flow rate news was very, very important as a read-through.  Investors in AOI should not lose sight of this.

 

 

API38