RE: Counting chickens - excellent post -
Very, very true. Buy low, sell higher. Remember, insiders need volume to sell their stock options into. How do you create volume? By positive news, expectations, greed, hope, etc.... So, accumulate low, buy now, and sell later... even right before earnings are to be announced. Sell INTO THE VOLUME. The previous examples are all classic... I made 90% on my money on VNE, but sold into the strength. Sure, I missed the $3.00 high, but from $1.10 to $2.00 was good enough. It is now back to $1.00 You can never time the market, only hope to hit the waves somewhere near the top and the bottom.
I am long on a significant investment on AGC. But, again, NEVER get married to a stock or emotionally attached to it. IT is paper... buy, sell, move on; buy, sell, etc....
I have seen this work myself with options... build up the expectations, hopes, and just when things look like they are looking the BEST, that is when the insiders are dumping.
Look at CPQ (Compaq) stock chart. After announcing earnings (not to analyst 'expectations') the stock free falled. But, the smart money is buying now, as the chart indicates.
Buy on mystery, sell on history.
Buy on rumour, sell on news and fact.
Good luck to us all.