I disagree. I think the GOM won't give up what the IA gives them. They need the money. The day that OT revenue is supposed to start flowing is drawing ever more near. The latest word from Rio is the OT project is on track.
The GOM appears a bit manic, "we want more ," "we'll honor the agreement," "we want more," and back and forth... I think they are just testing RIO's strength. Also, the government spokes-people are being pushed around by various lobbies, the same people one way by some, then the other way by others. I think its really just noise. I think OT will go into production on schedule with the original 2009 IA 100% in place.
How sorry; the GOM will be squirming uncomfortably as their choking down their 34% plus royalty income... As I've been saying, help them with their future mining policy, for all the foreign mining interest that will be biting, (due to the integrity of the 2009 IA remaining in place,) but what's past is done. The best outcome for all is to go forward with an honored agreement, no concessions.