When you drive on a highway, do you only look in the rear view mirror or through the windshield. The market generally looks 6 months ahead.
The gas $ is still low. Agreed. But it's still $1/2 million more per month. Would you prefer the old price?
The AOT terminal was not allowed to get full oil production until July 2012 as the existing contract to sell oil locally was still in place. That's a $10/bo netback not seen for 6 on the first 9 months. 10 bucks doesn't sound like much, but its almost 50% better than what they were getting prior to that. And they reached 4,000 bod in Q4 2012. Will it produce that quantity for the entire year, who knows? But thats why TPL has the Chegara fields to exploit. The oil is there, thats not in question. It's how much production can you push out of those fields and only TPL knows that as they have the production data on 3 current producers from the fields.
The $60 mil in cash from the Total agreement is worth $0.21 in cash to TPL.
There is no point commenting on a $3.38/mcf NA gas price. Its irrelevant. Nat gas is not based a global price, unlike oil. Gas in China is $7/mcf. In Europe its $10+/mcf and in Japan its $13/mcf.
The new Chinese nat gas pipeline running through next to TPL's gas fields in Kazakhstan is expected to be completed sometime in the 2nd half of 2013. That brings with it $7/mcf gas minus transportation costs. Basically a triple of the current contract TPL just released. The thing that not alot of people seem to understand is that the current gas infrastructure capacity for TPL is 12,800 boed and they are only producing around 2,500 boed currently. TPL has nat gas wells still shut-in from past drilling and they could bring them on any time they wanted to. They were shut in due to the low past pricing. These wells only cost $0.5 mil/well and they are drilled in roughly 2 weeks. Robson has stated in past webcasts that TPL could drill another dozen or so of these wells as they already on their inventory, but b/c of past gas pricing and a lack of funds there was no need to drill them.
When you get $60 mil in the bank you can afford to do a lot of things you couldn't in the past, like test Kalypso that's been sitting there for over a year. A 400mmbo prospect with over 100m of net pay needs to get tested.