the primary problem in my experience in a nationalization scenario is even if you "win" a settlement how can the judgement get enforced? Sadly in many cases it cannot be.  Think of crystallex a dispute which has gone for years. How many oil companies did chavez rip off? None of them ever got a penny from arbitration. Perhaps a lack of foreign investment will wake up Bolivia. but will it be in time to help sac?


from 9-24-12

Crystallex has since sought international arbitration before the Additional Facility of the World Bank's International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes against the Venezuela Government. It is seeking the restitution of its investments and the Mine Operating Contract and compensation for interim losses suffered, or, alternatively full compensation for the value of its investment in an amount in excess ofUS$3.8 billion.

The Venezuelan agreement with Citic certainly suggests that the restitution of the Mine Operating Contract is already a lost cause and even if the arbitrators find in Crystallex's favour, whether a Chavez government would be prepared to recognise the court's jurisdiction and/or honour anything but a trivial compensation award could be seen as doubtful.