Um, well, that's one way of looking at it.

 

I'm not a fan of technicals.  The real driver of TMB is two-fold: specialty dissolving pulp prices and them getting their $190 M cogen plant running.  They claim the latter will have an EBITDA impact of $45 M per year or something like that.  But the analysts are skeptical they can get it done or even afford it without selling off other assests so they value TMB at a low multiple.  It is all projected cash flows.

 

I think BMO has a target of $3.75 on them now.  This is one of the less conservative estimates.  They project and then institutions follow suit.  Joe Blow investors don't generally imact the market but technicals are a great backward-looking illusion of control. 

 

Tembec lives and dies on specalty pulp.  I find it odd to see so much excitment about CME's futures on here for TMB.  Seriously?  They have bearly a billion board feed (fbm) of lumber; WFT and CFp are five-fold that.  Don't confuse TMB as a lumber firm... lumber firms don't sell assets to Canfor for 25 cents on the dollar (Elko & Canal Flats). 

Temebc is a poorly managed pulp firm with an electriclty upside.  It's alwyas on sale.  If they ever got rid of inside-boy Lopez and secured the future of the coget (by selling Chapleau and some of the solid wood assets with high quality teimber supplies) well, boom, forget you 'resistance' levels  and those imaginary constructs becuase you have a $5 per share stock.  In the mean time, volitiltiy abounds.

Now, ending my rant -- in all seriousness does anyone know which firms hedge their production on futures?  I know Conifex does per an interview with Ken Shields.  I just don't know who else is in the game save for speculators.