1. large unexpected drop in the moly price with a negative short term outlook

2  terrible execution at the mines resulting in massive cost increases as well as lower production.  A flash point is the writedown of over a half billion dollars of the moly assets.  This is real money

3 TCM bought Terrane (Mount Milligan) in 2010 for about $650m, some of which was paod for with $9 TCM shares.  Capex ballooned to $1.55b from the originall $900m which led to a 52.25% sale of gold to Royal Gold at $435 as I recall.  Including some interest costs the total cost of Mount Milligan is circa $2.5b

To make matters worse gold is about 52% of the Mount Milligan metals with copper being 48%.  Soon Royal Gold will get cash flow of circa $120m  (100.000 ounces of gold).  Royal Gold will take away 50% to 60% of all profits for the life of mine.  In other words, TCM has contributed something like $1.5b for its share (Royal Gold provided the rest) in return for 40% to 50% of profits from Mount Milligan.  A $5 copper price would provide great profits but $1,600 gold and $3.50 copper will not enrich the company.   Royal Gold chipped in circa 40% of initial capital but TCM will have to provide 100% of sustaining capital.  They each share depletion equally.

Recent head winds mean that new setbacks will scare away even the most optimistic investors.

Key look-fors    $16 moly and $5 copper.  This may happen within a few years

Mat