I see a few things contributing to the weakness. Although if I had to surmise it all up it would be as simple as general ncertainty.
- Insider selling - albeit from just one individual, substantial selloff though
- The extended service rig deployment at wellpad 102(work has since been completed)
- The need for the market to see the numbers before buying in to oil by rail
- Shaken faith in risk assets and particularly in juniors(for now STP is still a junior)
1-Why did the insider liquidate his position? We don't know.
2-What was the service rig doing at wellpad 102 for ~3 weeks and how did it impact production? We don't know.
3-What kind of sales numbers will we see for Q1? Gotta wait until April/May for that and even if we wanted to speculate with an acceptable level of certainty we could not as we only have a general idea as to what the product will sell for. "Between WTI and Brent". Currently a $19 spread.
4-The financial market today is jittery when it comes to risk assets. Juniors are particularly susceptible to this fear because most of them, despite on a growth track, have a certain level of uncertainty associated to them. STP is no exception.
My 2 cents.