I like to look at history. The numbers used for gold prices are using the London PM fix beause it is readily available at Kitco. For Sandstorm Gold, I just use SAND (but numbers are fairly similar for SSL).
Dec 11: Gold was -12.3% MTD and closed 2011 @1531.00, +8.9% YTD; SAND was n/c MTD but was +48.1%.
Jan 12: Gold rebound and was +13.9% MTD; SAND beat gold and was +19.2% MTD.
Feb12: Both were up again, Gold only +1.5% MTD but SAND was +16.8%.
Nov 12: Gold was +12.7% YTD; SAND was a stunning +104.7% YTD.
Dec 12: Gold is currently ( thru 12/24/12) -4.9% MTD and +7.9% YTD; SAND is -5.1% MTD and +94.2% YTD.
For the remained of the month/year, I'd like to see gold and SAND stay at about courrent levels, or better.
If that happens, I would expect Gold to be positive in Jan-Feb and SAND get off to a good or even very gold start for the year.
The US deficit is roughly $1.5T annualy plus another $5.5T in unfunded liabilities (Medicare, Medicare, Social Security, and other transfer payments). It lools like nothing is going to be done to significanly reduce this over the next 10 years. That is adding $70T of liabilities through 2022. The only thing currenly saving us is the virtually zero interest rates. When that changes, Katie bar the door. Look out below, etc.
Gold should finish 2012 positive for the 12th straight year. On average, commodity rallies last 20 years. This rally could last significantly longer with the combination of (current) negative true interest rates and printing of almost unlimited fiat currencies, both in the US and almost worldwide.
What to do? Do your DD; however, my leading investments (insurance) are SAND, STTYF (SND), SLW, SLV, and a couple of small silver producers. Only time will tell if I'm right. One thing is for sure, I sleep well at night and I don't worry about the daily, monthly, or even quarterly price moves. I'll change if and when the macro economic and currency/precious metals environment changes enough to start looking at a different asset mix.
Hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. 2012 has been excellent for Sandstorm Gold holders. I look for 2013 (SAND) to be +40%, or more. Could it be +100%, or better? Yes, but I am not calling for that at this time. I am betting (investing) on slow and steady, but we could see a precious metals blast off at almost anytime.. GLTA