Front Street Capital created a negative momentum in late Nov 2012. This is the reason for the recent drop. That fund sold more than 1 million shares (1,265,000 shares) once Q3 2012 report was released in late Nov 2012. The Tax loss selling is the most likely reason.
However the manager of that fund should know that SCS had already let the investors know about its plan. SCS had no plans to drill in Q3 2012 because it wanted to complete and connect the wells drilled in H1 2012. It also wanted to progress its significant infrastructure investment on pipelines and electrification to reduce the operating cost by $7/boe . This is why the production dropped in Q3.
However there were more than 500 boepd behind pipe that were connected in Q4 2012.
Does anybody read the reports carefully these days ?
Not to ignore that SCS is almost fully hedged for its oil production. However, it is not bad that Edmonton was $95 yesterday, the gap with WTI has closed significantly in Jan 2012 while SCS estimates are based on a $85 Edmonton price.