Front Street Capital created  a negative momentum in late Nov 2012. This is the reason for the recent drop. That fund sold more than 1 million shares (1,265,000   shares)  once Q3 2012 report was released in late  Nov 2012. The Tax loss  selling  is the most likely reason. 

However the manager of that fund should know  that  SCS had already let the investors know about  its  plan. SCS had  no  plans  to  drill in Q3 2012 because  it  wanted  to  complete and connect  the wells drilled in H1 2012. It also wanted to progress its significant infrastructure investment on pipelines and electrification to reduce the operating cost by  $7/boe . This is  why  the  production  dropped  in  Q3.

However there were more than  500 boepd  behind pipe that were connected in Q4 2012.

Does  anybody  read  the  reports  carefully  these  days ? 

 

Not to ignore that  SCS is almost  fully hedged  for its oil production. However, it is not bad that Edmonton was $95 yesterday, the gap with WTI has closed significantly in Jan 2012  while SCS estimates are based on a $85 Edmonton price.