I believe the upcoming 2P Reserves report will be a game changer. All their wells in H1 2012 exceeded expectations and they were very oily. According to the company in Q3 2012 report, the average IP-30 for their wells in beaverhill lake is 500 bbl/d excluding the natural gas. I estimate the total average IP-30 for their wells is around 600 boepd.
SCS drilled around 10 net wells in H1 2012. Assuming a decent 400 Mboe/well, it gives around 4 MMboe from these wells. Add this on the existing 11 MMBoe, and you get something around 14-15 MMboe (80% oil and liquids).
Let's say 14,5 MMboe.
14,5 X $20/boe = $290M
290 - 90 (bank debt) = $200 M (estimated market cap)
The current market cap is only $40M. The valuation gap is huge and the risk/reward is huge too.
The numbers speak volumes.
However , the average valuation for so oily 2p Reserves is around $25/boe. Do your dd to confirm.