No heat, no power, no hot showers... so we took a break in AC for a shower and warm bed as soon as they opened, just returning in time to vote for MITT.
Having done a lot of early DD on geothermal....
It is a fact that most geothermal units work at something less than 90% of rated capacity. (State of Nevada data)
Binary units top out around 82% and flash around 88%. Typically the 10 MW flash units GEO put in place only produced at best 8.6 MW of power. The fact that the 38.5 MW phase I machine is running at 36+MW is amazing, over 93%.
Most Geothermal sites require well replacement or refurbishing on a 5-10 year schedule hence the Project’s major maintenance reserves established under the Phase I and II Credit Facilities. These are not high cost loans as indicated by sccool50 but cash held in reserve for maintenance (as required by the banks) and dedicated to this type of expenditure.
The wells that fed the 10MW plant were drilled in 2003 and 2004. I spoke with GEO management back in 2008 and they were already taking about maintenance for the 10 MW units wells. But the use of the word "unexplained" by current management is worrisome.
The company has 30 years of drilling data from the site and 8 years of running data from the 10MW units and the EAST SJT site was originally estimated by SKM for GEO to be 66 MW. The west side 135 MW. So I was surprised in late 2009 when RPG announced 72MW for the first project on the eastern side.
If we take 62 and 4 from the 2012 project we get 66... about what I originally used for GEO EBITDA calculations. GEO was planning three 27.4 MW units and only expecting 66 MW about 80%. As far as I know the company still has one of the 27.4MW units up for sale.
I believe the stock dip is an over reaction but then again I think the Stock will respond over the next 6-9 months to 3rd and 4th Quarter financial data. But please do your own DD.