- Newmont Mining Corp cut its forecast for full year Cu production on Thursday, blaming lower-than expected throughput at its Boddington mine in Australia and lower-than-expected ore grade processed at its Batu Hijua operation in Indonesia Newmont expects to produce 135-145 M lbs Cu this year, down from a previous forecast of 150-170 M lbs. It left unchanged its full year Au production forecast at 4.8-5.1Moz.
Comment: Another Cu production short fall due to falling grades and production.
**All those vaunted predictions of new production flooding the market ain't coming to pass! "
- A feared surplus in Cu that was expected to swamp the market this year has failed to send prices tumbling. A combination of stronger demand from China and delays in processing ore into refined metal has left the market more balanced than expected at the start of the year.
- China is expected to import more refined Cu in 2014 as Beijing steps up building of power networks, rail lines and low-cost homes, while domestic production is likely to be squeezed by tight scrap supply, industry sources said. Refined Cu consumption might rise 5 to 6 % in 2014, three large end-users and producers estimated.
- Long-term Cu prices should be boosted by rising cost inflation and a bullish outlook for Chinese demand, prompting analysts to revise prices for the next 10 years up by more than 8 % from $6,420/t ($2.97/lb) to $6,948/t ($3.15/lb), according to a Reuters surveyof11analysts.
Comment: We believe that the forecast is conservative and we expect difficulties in supply will result in long term prices north of $3.50/lb.
Source: Visage Report