It's not getting near the press but Bingham Canyon is 17% of the USA production or 1% of Global. Freeport'sgrasberg is 3% global Cu supply. So combine the two and what do you get?? See all below and google links. Incidentally Mr. Frankman who am I supposed to be? Duck, Rebel20, NoRules, Longdrop, BestInNYC? I just need to know.

 

INDUSTRY

Disruptions Tighten Cu Supply

  • A series of Cu mine shutdowns and supply logjams has prompted some analysts to scale down forecasts for a market surplus, but it would take more disruptions to swing the market into a deficit. The global market for refined Cu was expected to have a 98,500 t surplus this year and 305,000 t in 2014, based on the average forecast of 18 analysts polled by Reuters in April. The 2013 estimate was already scaled back from a 127,000 t surplus forecast in January.
  • The April forecasts came shortly after a rockslide at Rio Tinto's Bingham Canyon Cu mine, which the company said would reduce production by about 100,000 t. But they were made before the world's second-biggest Cu mine, Grasberg in Indonesia, shut this month after a tunnel collapse killed 28 workers. Owner Freeport McMoRan Cu & Au has said it will not reopen the mine until it is certain conditions are safe.
  • On top of mining issues, plants in China, the world's top producer of refined metal, have been cutting back capacity due to a shortfall in the scrap metal they use as a feedstock, while India's top two smelters have been shut due to pollution concerns.

 

Comment: Supply disruption will play a big role in the Cu balance in 2013. However, forecasting a surplus or deficit for Cu is difficult because China’s consumption, 40% of world demand, is uncertain due to movements to hide inventories. The hidden inventories include the bonded inventories which are rumored to have been depleted by up to 500,000 t this year, changes in Chinese consumer inventories and the Chinese governments SRB inventories. The reported Cu inventories on the three exchanges have increased 301,125 t since the end of 2012, but the changes in the hidden inventories can easily offset the transparent increases.

Further evidence of the supply troubles in Brazil:

Paranapanema will buy 51% more Cu concentrate this year to feed a 27% expansion in its finished Cu output. Purchases of external concentrate will be 707,400 t, up from last year's 468,432 t, the company said. Paranapanema is Brazil's only Cu smelter and is expanding Cu capacity to 280,000 t/y from 220,000 t/y by the end of this year under its New Paranapanema restructuring.

--source: Visage

 

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www.sltrib.com/sltrib/money/.../mine-kennecott-company-april.html.csp

May 2, 2013 – On Thursday, fear became fact for workers at Kennecott Utah Copper. The massive April 10 landslide in Bingham Canyon Mine will cost some ...

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blogs.agu.org/.../analysing-the-bingham-canyon-mine-landslide-part-1-t...

Apr 30, 2013 – Part one of a three part series of posts looking in detail at the Bingham Canyon mine landslide.

·  Analysing the Bingham Canyon mine landslide part 2: the landslide ...

blogs.agu.org/.../analysing-the-bingham-canyon-mine-landslide-part-2-t...

May 6, 2013 – The second part of my three-part posting analysing the Bingham Canyon landslide.

·  Inside a mile-deep open-pit copper mine after a catastrophic ...

boingboing.net/2013/04/22/inside-a-mile-deep-open-pit-co.html

Apr 22, 2013 – Above is a picture, from local news channel KSL, of a massive landslide at Bingham Canyon Mine, about 20 miles southwest of Salt Lake City.

·  First look inside Bingham Canyon Mine: ABC 4 Utah tours the ...

www.abc4.comNewsSLC

Apr 25, 2013 – BINGHAM CANYON, Utah (ABC 4 News) – It's the world's largest excavation and open-pit copper mine and it's been shut down. It's been more ...