I got your point, but you were responding to something that I wasn't so it is irrelevant.


I find it a bit scary that my point is really that difficult to grasp as it is really pretty basic.


Imagine there are 81,000,000 candy bars (shares of Poseidon). No more are going to be created or destroyed or eaten. These candy bars are all sitting in the hands of hundreds of people within a convention center that are free to interact with each other and can even be bought and sold amongst each other for a profit or a loss. Right now these candy bars are changing hands at $1.25 a piece.


If 99/100 people in this arena suddenly believe that the price was going to go up, nobody would sell and the supply of candy bars on the market would dry up almost instantly. 99/100 people would be purchasing candy bars, 1/100 would be selling. In a free market, this would quickly drive the price through the roof. The increase would probably be 150% in minutes. Instead, the price of this good decreased from $1.25-$1.21 today. Clearly, 99/100 people don't believe the stock price is going to go up.


If an active trader that makes $300,000 bets on junior exploration companies thinks the stock market works this way, I don't think he should be fiddling around in the stock market anymore and he should stick to working in areas that he actually understands.