You are correct, I was being overly simplistic by boiling the future improvement in prospects to recovery in gas price, but my point is that there are many ways to leverage directional moves in commodity prices and if that is the fundamental driver of recovery, there may be less risky ways to the same return.

I am not disagreeing with your analysis at all, you are probably right on the money and could only be blindsided by out and out chicanery.

If there is intrinsic value in current cash flows that are not recognised in the current price, then you have additional upside over and above that afforded by recovery in the frack market.

I have chosen to take my lumps from catching a falling knife and sit out until there is clarification, but I may jump back in, like you say the market will know before we do and the only sign will be volume, momentum and price.