terrior, you misinterpret my post. First, PSN does more in the way of oil exploration water services than gas. My point is simple. There has been a cyclical slowdown in both oil and gas drilling, and this has impacted PSN as well as all other tank providers. Growth in units placed slows and the daily rate declines. But the cycle will turn, and with it more tank units will be placed and daily rates will go up as well. And one can hope/expect that Cliff Weibe will likely bring some new innovation to the tank/water service business that may give Poseidon a further edge over the competition.
Your next point is correct, PSN must survive this short term cyclical downturn. But I would tell you that if you consider the amount owed on the line of credit is about $56 million, and they have 125 million in accounts receiveable at Q3 end, and assuming that they can collect just 1/2 of what is owed them of the accounts receivable--and this assumes an ENTIRE write of of the 36 million above the 125 million that remains past due--and this 100 % write off of the 36 million is not likely to be the case-- but in just looking at 125 million in AR, half of this would pay off ALL of their debt under their line of credit. PSN is not a company overwhelmed by debt. and this is a company that can scale down its expenses rapidly to get through the down cycle we are presently in.
And is there anyone here who does not think the long term prospects for fracking are excellent?
And thinking about the class action suit. These types of suits drag on for many years and are eventually settled for pennies on the dollar of the claim, and this assumes there is wrongdoing and not just a management team that was inexperienced in the ways of oil/gas service given that they came from the exploration side of the business, and overwhelmed by the rate of growth they were seeing in their business. And I would add, too, that there was a reason that they left the exploration side for the service side, and that was that they thought they had a better business with significant upside as compared to the business they exited. Think about Cisco Systems in the buildout of the internet. How many internet companies in the 1990's went belly up mining for gold on the net? And Cisco serviced the industry with routers and switches and made a ton of money. Or back in the gold rush days, how many struck it rich panning for gold compared to those that made it rich selling the picks and panning materials?
It will be interesting to see just how much or the 36 million in poast due AR PSN writes off in Q4. If thay balst it all out in Q$, this will likely reduce the book value of the company upon which the stock price today is trading. But blowing it all out in Q4 will clean the slate for a better 2013 and the stock after the panic settles could begin to move up. Or possibly PSN will preserve book value and gradually write off uncollectible amounts over the course of 2013, which would serve to reduce earnings each quarter but would preserve book value.
I think it is a matter of how you want to take your pain--all at once, or slowly--like ripping off a band aid.
And don't forget that the market is a discounting mechanism. You will likely see the stock moving up at some point while the news flow is still ugly. The market has a keen way of sniffing out the turn before the news actually gets better.
Not saying at all that I know what the ultimate bottom pirce will be in PSN. Just saying that I think there is value here somewhere at or beneath book value. i think prospects are good they they survive assuming there is no massive fraud here (and I don't think there is). And those buyers who buy when it is ugly will benefit when the cycle turns. It is always darkest before the dawn.