That's more or less how I view it. The only thing you didn't mention is the production factor... in Q3 it was abnormally bad due to the pipeline issue and not having a backup pipeline initially.
Going forward, if the same thing happens, they already have a backup in place. So that means PLT has one element of less risk than was the case at the beginning of Q3 and prior.
I'm betting that the Q4 numbers will show a BIG improvement over the Q3 numbers due to higher production + higher commodity prices.
I also find the reasoning given for the recent rating cuts by "expert" analysts to be inane.