This came from Canaccord on Monday Nov 12, 2012:
Pan American Silver (PAAS : NASDAQ, PAA : TSX| HOLD, Target US$25.00)
Q3/12 miss on operational issues at Manantial Espeko and Dolores; maintain HOLD and US$25 target We reiterate our HOLD rating on Pan American Silver’s shares following Q3/12 results which missed estimates largely due to operational performance at Manantial Espejo and Dolores.
Q3/12 adjusted EPS was $0.25 vs. our estimate and consensus of $0.33. The
variance to our estimate was largely due to lower-than-expected margins and
higher exploration expenses, partially offset by lower depreciation and taxes.
Silver production was 6.28 Moz and gold production was 28,162 oz (sales of 5.94
Moz Ag) at cash costs of $13.87/oz Ag net of by-products vs. our production
estimate of 6.55 Moz Ag and 36,448 oz Au at $11.83/oz Ag net of by-products.
Pan American maintained 2012 silver production guidance of 24.25-25.50 Moz Ag
at cash costs of $11.50-$12.50/oz net of by-products. However, gold production
guidance has been revised down to approximately 114,000 oz from previous
guidance of 124,000-133,000 oz.
Based on results from the initial drill program at Waterloo, the company will
increase exploration efforts at the property for the remainder of 2012 and intends to
complete an NI43-101 resource estimate and environmental baseline study by the
end of 2013.
As a result of Q3/12 performance and revised 2012 by-product production
guidance, our 2012 EPS estimate has been revised to US$1.37 from US$1.51.
We reiterate our target price of US$25.00 based on 0.8x our 5%/peak NAVPS estimate of
US$31.21 (previously US$31.05).
The typical risks associated with any mining investment include commodity and
exchange rate risk, permitting and technical (development/operating) risk. The
company's results are most influenced by changes in silver and zinc prices. There is also
permitting/jurisdictional risk associated with the Navidad project in Chubut Province,
Argentina. Due to recent proposed mining legislation, we no longer ascribe any value to
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Also note that I am very keen on DRV, it has a remarkable story in-play, one that has caught the attention of Rio Alto in its first foray outside its wildly successful 200,000+ oz/annum La Arena gold mine; here is URL of insight http://miningmarketwatch.net/drv.htm In fact Alex Black of Rio Alto is so commited to seeing DRV's projects come to a big heap leach mine it joined the baord of DRV.